News and Updates – FAA Releases Aerospace Forecast

WASHINGTON All indicators show that air travel in the United States is strong and according to the FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years (FY) 2018-2038, the trend will continue.This is occurring while American air travelers are experiencing the highest levels of safety in modern aviation history.

The FAA forecasts U.S. airline enplanements (passengers) will increase from 840.8 million in 2017 to 1.28 billion in 2038, an increase of more than 400 million passengers. Domestic enplanements are set to increase 4.7 percent in 2018 and then grow at an average rate of 1.7 percent per year during the remaining 20-year forecast period. International enplanements are forecast to increase 5.0 percent in 2018 and then grow an average of 3.3 percent per year for the rest of the forecast period.

Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) are the industry standard for measuring air travel demand. An RPM represents one revenue passenger traveling one mile. The FAA forecasts U.S. airline system RPMs to grow at an average rate of 2.5 percent per year between 2017 through 2038, with international RPMs projected too have average annual increases of 3.2 percent per year during the forecast period.

A key to meeting this growth in air travel, while maintaining high levels of safety and efficiency, is to ensure we have the necessary infrastructure to meet demand. Underscoring this point, the FAA forecasts total operations (landings and take-offs) at FAA and contract towers to reach 51.0 million in 2018 and grow to 60.5 million in 2038.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) and the FAA are planning for this growth in air travel with robust infrastructure investments through the Airport Improvement Program. Air traffic modernization is rapidly moving towards satellite navigation technologies and procedures which will continue to allow enhanced navigation for more aircraft.

The forecast also highlights the phenomenal growth in the use of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), often referred to as drones. The FAA projects the small model hobbyist UAS fleet to more than double from an estimated 1.1 million vehicles in 2017 to 2.4 million units by 2022. The commercial, small non-model UAS fleet is set to grow from 110,604 in 2017 to 451,800 in 2022. The number of remote pilots is set to increase from 73,673 in 2017 to 301,000 in 2022.

In addition to UAS, another rapidly growing aerospace field is the FAAs licensing, oversight and regulation of commercial space transportation activities. The FAA projects that commercial space launch and re-entry operations may triple from 22 in 2017 to as high as 61 operations in 2020.

The FAA aerospace forecast is the industry-wide standard of measurement of U.S. aviation-related activities. This stems from the enormous variety of data, trends and other factors the agency uses to develop it, such as generally accepted economic projections, surveys and information sent by the airlines to the DOT. Additionally, the scope of the report looks at all facets of aviation including commercial air travel, air cargo, and private general aviation.

Read more in a fact sheet on the forecast on our website.

FAA Formalizes Doors-off and Open-door Flight Prohibitions

March 22Today the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) published an emergency order regarding doors off and “open-door” operations.This order formalizes the FAAs prior communications on these operations.

This order is issued to all operators and pilots of flights for compensation or hire with the doors open or removed in the United States or using aircraft registered in the United States for doors off flights.

It prohibits the use of supplemental passenger restraint systems that cannot be released quickly in an emergency in doors off flight operations. This order also prohibits passenger-carrying doors off flight operations unless the passengers are at all times properly secured using FAA approved restraints.

The order is effective March 22, 2018 and available for inspection on the Federal Register.

FAA to Hold Meetings on CLT Environmental Study

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will host public scoping meetings next month for the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for Charlotte Douglas International Airports (CLT) proposed fourth parallel runway and other projects. The meetings will help residents learn about the Airports proposed projects, and help define the purpose and scope of the study. Charlottes Airport Capacity Enhancement Plan (ACEP) recommended that the airport complete a 12,000-foot-long runway by 2023, along with other airfield and terminal improvements to accommodate future aviation demand

The public scoping meetings will be at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, April 24, 2018, at Embassy Suites, 4800 S. Tryon St, Charlotte, NC 28217; and at 7 p.m. on Thursday, April 26, 2018, at the West Mecklenburg High School Cafeteria, 7400 Tuckaseegee Rd, Charlotte, NC 28214.

The meetings will include an open house where residents can view displays covering environmental topics that the study will cover and a presentation on the Airports proposed projects.Attendees also may make private comments to a stenographer, complete and submit a comment card, or enter a comment on a computer terminal during the meetings. Residents also may mail a comment card or submit an email to CLTEIS@faa.gov or via Regulations.gov. The comment period is open until May 7, 2018. However, we will continue to accept comments throughout the EIS process and we will respond to all comments in the Draft EIS.

The FAA is conducting the EIS, in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and scoping is a required part of the process. The CLT EIS will evaluate the potential direct, indirect, and cumulative environmental impacts that may result from the Airports proposed projects. The projects include a 12,000-foot-long fourth parallel Runway 1/19 between existing Runway 18/36 Center and Runway 18 Right/36 Left, associated taxiways including a partial north End Around Taxiway, full south End Around Taxiway, parallel, high-speed exit and connector taxiways. Construction of the new runway along with terminal and ramp expansion projects would require the decommissioning of Runway 5/23 and relocation of West Boulevard.

The EIS will consider a range of reasonable alternatives that could potentially meet the purpose and need for the proposed projects and it will evaluate a No Action Alternative. The FAA expects to complete the EIS in 2020.

The FAAs most recent Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) projects that the number of flights at CLT will grow at an average rate of 1.85 percent annually from more than 545,000 operations in 2016 to 745,000 operations in 2033. In 2016, the Airport served more than 21.7 million passengers, which the FAA expects to grow to more than 31.5 million by 2033.

Fly Safe: Prevent Loss of Control Accidents

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the general aviation (GA) communitys national #FlySafe campaign helps educate GA pilots about the best practices to calculate and predict aircraft performance and to operate within established aircraft limitations.

A Loss of Control (LOC) accident involves an unintended departure of an aircraft from controlled flight. LOC can happen when the aircraft enters a flight regime that is outside its normal flight envelope and quickly develops into a stall or spin. It can introduce an element of surprise for the pilot.

Prepare, Prepare, Prepare
Every time you take flight, you need to be ready for the unexpected. Engine failures, inflight emergencies and other problems come up when you least expect them. However, if you train for these mishaps, your chances of survival increases.

TheGeneral Aviation Joint Steering Committee (GAJSC) recommends every pilot undergo emergency procedures training. This type of training puts pilots in realistic, complex situations.

Multi-Engine Madness
Lets look at an example from a multi-engine airplane: engine loss on takeoff. Your aircraft is climbing and the critical engine fails. With climb altitude and airspeed, youre close to minimum control speed (Vmc). Any reduction in speed or increase in angle of attack will likely put you into an un-commanded yaw and roll toward the inoperative engine.

Losing an engine en-route or on approach is less critical because youll likely have more airspeed and more altitude to deal with. But, what if you have to go around? Single-engine go-arounds in light twins often dont go well. They should be avoided, if possible. Another thought: while engine failure on a twin represents a 50 percent loss of power, it can result in as much as an 80 percent loss of performance.

Plan for these types of emergencies. Practice your response. Your ability to react will improve dramatically, and youll be glad you did!

Grab an Instructor
Flight simulation is another great tool for planning and preparing for an emergency. With a qualified instructor on board, you can experience an engine failure after takeoff, or practice your reaction to a primary or multi-function flight display failure. Your instructor can also help you practice with electrical failures, control-system failures and more.

Flight Simulation Software
Flight simulation software on your home computer, cell phone or tablet can also help you practice. This type of review will help you become familiar with the early indications of a failure and youll be experienced in overcoming your natural tendency toward denial with This cant be happening, and rationalization Oh, its probably just a gauge problem.

Three Keys to Proper Emergency Planning
Finally, remember to:

1.Make a plan of action. For takeoffs, know the runway length and calculate your accelerate/stop distance. Know where youll go if you cant make it back to the departure airport. If you have a multi-engine airplane, know your best single-engine climb speed (Vyse), which will become your target airspeed if an engine fails.

2. Review your plan before you fly. Make sure you and your fellow crewmembers are briefed on every takeoff, approach and landing. Review what youll do in the event of an emergency.

3.Practice with a flight instructor. You can never practice too much. Prepare for every possibility so you can respond quickly.

Message from Acting FAA Administrator Daniel Elwell:
The FAA and industry are working together to prevent Loss of Control (LOC) accidents and save lives. You can help make a difference by joining our #Fly Safe campaign. Every month on FAA.gov, we provide pilots with Loss of Control solutions developed by a team of experts some of which are already reducing risk. I hope you will join us in this effort and spread the word. Follow #FlySafe on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. I know that we can reduce these accidents by working together as a community.

More about Loss of Control
Contributing factors may include:

  • Poor judgment or aeronautical decision making
  • Failure to recognize an aerodynamic stall or spin and execute corrective action
  • Intentional failure to comply with regulations
  • Failure to maintain airspeed
  • Failure to follow procedure
  • Pilot inexperience and proficiency
  • Use of prohibited or over-the-counter drugs, illegal drugs, or alcohol

Did you know?

  • From October 2016 through September 2017, 247 people died in 209 general aviation accidents.
  • Loss of Control was the number one cause of these accidents.
  • Loss of Control happens in all phases of flight.It can happen anywhere and at any time.
  • There is one fatal accident involving Loss of Control every four days.

Learn more:
Check out the GA Safety Enhancement fact sheet on Emergency Procedures Training. Fact sheets on previous topics are available on the mainFAA Safety Briefing website.

Learn more about Scenario Based Training by reviewing this slide presentation.

You can never know too much about Defensive Flying. See the July/August 2013 issue of the FAA Safety Briefing for more.

When the Best Made Plans Go Awryis the topic of this still-relevant article in the November/December 2010 edition of FAA Safety Briefing.

Curious about the FARs? Its a good idea to stay on top of them. The current Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) can be found on this website.

TheFAASafety.govwebsite has Notices, FAAST Blasts, online courses, webinars and more on key general aviation safety topics.

TheWINGS Pilot Proficiency Programhelps pilots build an educational curriculum suitable for their unique flight requirements. The program is based on the premise that pilots who maintain currency and proficiency in the basics of flight will enjoy a safer and more stress-free flying experience.

TheGeneral Aviation Joint Steering Committee (GAJSC)is comprised of government and industry experts who work together to use data to identify risk, pinpoint trends through root cause analysis, and develop safety strategies to reduce the risk of GA accidents. The GAJSC combines the expertise of many key decision makers in the FAA, several government agencies such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and stakeholder groups. Industry participants include the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Experimental Aircraft Association, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Light Aircraft Manufacturers Association, National Business Aviation Association, National Air Transportation Association, National Association of Flight Instructors, Society of Aviation and Flight Educators, and the aviation insurance industry. The National Transportation Safety Board and the European Aviation Safety Agency participate as observers.

FAA Air Traffic Report

Today’s Air Traffic Report:

Low clouds may slow flights today at the three major airports in the New York area (EWR, JFK, LGA), while heavy air traffic could lead to delays at Teterboro Airport (TEB). Thunderstorms are expected in Houston (HOU, IAH).

Pilots: Check out the new Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA) Tool from the Aviation Weather Center.

For up-to-the-minute air traffic operations information, visit fly.faa.gov, and follow @FAANews on Twitter for the latest news and Air Traffic Alerts.

The FAA Air Traffic Report provides a reasonable expectation of any daily impactsto normal air traffic operations, i.e. arrival/departure delays, ground stoppages, airport closures. This information is for air traffic operations planning purposes and is reliable as weather forecasts and other factors beyond our ability to control.

Always check with your air carrier for flight-specific delay information.